For weeks, Israelis have waited in trepidation for a major attack by Hezbollah in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior commander of the Lebanese group in Beirut last month, amid widespread fears that a cross-border escalation could spiral into an all-out regional war.
But much of Israel woke up on Sunday to find that, at least for the immediate term, the long-dreaded attack appeared to be over almost before it started.
Both Israel and Hezbollah quickly claimed victories of sorts: Israel for its predawn pre-emptive strikes against what the military said were thousands of Hezbollah’s rocket launcher barrels in southern Lebanon; and Hezbollah for its subsequent firing of barrages of rockets and drones at northern Israel, which the Israeli military initially said had caused little damage.
By breakfast time, the two sides were employing the language of containment.
Hezbollah announced that it had completed the “first stage” of its attack to avenge the assassination of the senior commander, Fuad Shukr, and appeared to be calling it a day, at least for now. Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said he had spoken with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and they had “discussed the importance of avoiding regional escalation,” according to a statement from Mr. Gallant’s office.
Still, the Middle East remained on edge, the days ahead uncertain.
“There can be stages,” cautioned Ehud Yaari, an Israel-based fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a research group. “You can have escalation that is gradual.”
Later Sunday morning, the Israeli military said it was continuing to strike Hezbollah launchers in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is estimated to possess tens of thousands of rockets and a smaller number of more sophisticated, precise missiles.
And Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, still has an open account with Israel, blaming it for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of its ally Hamas, while he was in Tehran, just hours after the killing of Mr. Shukr. Israel officially took responsibility for Mr. Shukr’s death but not for Mr. Haniyeh’s.
Based on intelligence, Israel took the decision to pre-empt Hezbollah’s attack on Sunday “but not to go beyond,” Mr. Yaari said. The targets that Israel struck were all less than 30 miles inside Lebanon, he said. Israel said they were focused on thwarting Hezbollah’s immediate attack plans, not its wider assets or infrastructure.
Hezbollah, for its part, appears to be “signaling that it is done for now,” Mr. Yaari said. “At the same time, they are saying this was the first stage of retaliation, leaving open the option to do more, if they get a green light from the Iranians,” he added.
The events on Sunday have raised the stakes for negotiators gathering in Cairo to try to advance a cease-fire and hostage release deal for the ongoing war in Gaza. The United States is leading the push, along with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, for a deal that would end the 10-month conflict between Israel and Hamas, in the hope that such an agreement could help calm tensions in the region.
Hezbollah and Israel had already engaged for months in tit-for-tat cross-border clashes. Hezbollah began firing in solidarity with Hamas after last October’s Hamas-led assault on southern Israel prompted Israel to go to war in Gaza.
The exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah have grown in intensity in recent weeks, in what many analysts have described as a war of attrition.
Read More: After Attacks, Israel and Hezbollah Swiftly Move to Talk of Containment
