What to Watch for in East German State Elections on Sunday

On Sunday, voters in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia go to the polls in elections that are being carefully watched in Berlin and across Europe, in part because the far-right Alternative for Germany party is poised to do well in one or both elections.

The two states, which were under Communist rule until 1990, will be voting for their state house representatives and ultimately their state government.

While those eligible to cast ballots in the two state elections represent only about 7 percent of Germany’s total electorate, the vote still promises to be important — for both the potential success of an anti-immigrant, nationalist party and because of the rise of a left-wing party built around a former Communist, known as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, after its leader. That party, founded only this year, is likely to outpace most mainstream parties, and it is predicted to come in third in both state house races.

The results are expected to be a clear sign of the East’s discontent with the federal government in Berlin. Some or all of the parties that make up Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party governing coalition could be kicked out of the state houses in Saxony and Thuringia for failing to reach the required 5 percent threshold in Sunday’s elections.

The likely results will bring a dilemma for mainstream parties: either do everything possible to prevent the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, from forming a state government — further aggrieving voters who say their voices are not heard — or go against party orthodoxy and work with the far right in the hopes of reining it in.

How important are these elections?

Even if the elections themselves are for two state governments — and Saxony and Thuringia are the seventh and 12th largest by population of Germany’s 16 states — the symbolic importance of a far-right party potentially winning a plurality of votes in Germany, nearly eight decades after the end of the Nazi era, cannot be overstated.

Although it appears unlikely from the polls, if one or both of the ideologically extreme parties end up running the states through coalitions with other parties, they could pose a major headache for Berlin by slowing the passage of certain laws in the Federal Council of states. The council, which is made up of state leaders, normally approves laws passed by Parliament. But it can also block them, to a point, and it also has the power to elect constitutional court judges.

All of the parties — including the two expected to make significant gains on Sunday — have their eyes on next year, when Mr. Scholz and his government face re-election. They will use the outcome of these elections to make their cases to voters across the country in September 2025.

What to expect on Sunday and the weeks after?

Voting booths are open in the two states from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. Sunday. It will take a couple of hours after polls close to get dependable results, especially in close races.

The initial results on Sunday will reveal what the voters had to say, but they probably will not be able to conclusively tell who will form the next government.

No party is expected to win a majority of votes, meaning that whatever the result, the states will be governed by coalitions of two or more parties. The critical questions of what those coalitions look like will be ironed out in the coming weeks in Dresden and Erfurt, the states’ capitals, where party leaders will meet and try to make deals.

What seems clear from polling is that either the AfD or the new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known by its German initials B.S.W., will have a role in at least one of the governments.

The Christian Democratic Union, or C.D.U., the mainstream conservative party that is expected to be part of the government in one or both states, has rules against working with the AfD. The party has, however, shown itself open to working with the B.S.W.

How will the government in Berlin deal with the outcome?

Much will depend on what coalitions will be formed in the coming weeks. The AfD and the B.S.W. have run on platforms critical of both the government’s handling of refugees and military support for Ukraine. Germany is the biggest European donor of military aid to Ukraine, but is already moving to halve its funding for 2025.

The election will also probably lift the fortunes of the C.D.U., which will be the mainstream party most likely able to hold back the fringe parties in Saxony and Thuringia — giving its leadership in Berlin more weight.

As long as the AfD whose state chapters are classified as right-wing extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence service, stays out of the two state governments, the political dynamics in Berlin will probably not have to change — at least until the federal election next September.