After weeks of foreboding, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah has been averted, at least for now, as both sides returned on Monday to more contained confrontations along the Israel-Lebanon border.
But any relief has been tempered by renewed anxiety and uncertainty: Despite the apparent postponement of a bigger regional war, Israel’s grinding conflicts with both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza still have no end in sight.
The trajectories of both wars depend largely on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Yahya Sinwar of Hamas, who both fear for their own political survival should they agree to a cease-fire in Gaza on terms that they or their supporters deem unfavorable.
In negotiations for a truce in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu is pushing for a temporary break in hostilities that will theoretically allow Israel to continue to fight Hamas after a few weeks, thus placating his supporters who oppose ending the war before Hamas is completely destroyed. By contrast, Mr. Sinwar wants a permanent cease-fire that, even if it collapses in a few months, will give Hamas a greater chance of rebuilding its arsenal and retaining power in Gaza.
Without a deal in Gaza, Hezbollah has vowed to continue its strikes along the Israel-Lebanon border, where any sudden miscalculation or mistake still risks transforming a relatively restricted fight into a bigger conflict involving Iran, the benefactor of both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Thus far at least, finding a way to satisfy both men has seemed nearly impossible.
For now, both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back from the brink, a day after they exchanged some of the biggest salvos since the start of their 10-month cross-border battle. Israel’s defense minister spoke on Sunday of “the importance of avoiding regional escalation,” while Hezbollah’s leader said “people can take a breath and relax.”
Still, the fundamental dynamics of their fight, as well as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, are stuck. Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel and Lebanon remain displaced by the fighting. Millions of Palestinians in Gaza remain homeless, large parts of the territory stand in ruin, and tens of thousands have been killed. And Iran has yet to respond militarily to Israel’s assassination of a Hamas leader last month in Tehran.
“Strategically, the situation has not changed and we are where we were,” said Shira Efron, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.
“This in practice means continuous attritional war, with constant risk of escalation with no end in sight,” Ms. Efron said. “In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and millions of Palestinians continue to suffer amidst a region teetering on the edge.”
A truce in Lebanon is dependent on a truce in Gaza, which remains a distant prospect given the contrasting goals of Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar. Four days of meetings between senior Israeli officials and U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo concluded on Sunday without a breakthrough, although negotiators said talks with less senior officials would continue.
Hezbollah has said it will continue its battle until Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. And its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech on Sunday that the militia reserved the right to attack again to avenge Israel’s killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month.
Despite a renewed push by the United States and optimistic comments from Biden administration officials, the Gaza cease-fire talks appear to be at an impasse.
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is still opposed to clauses in the proposed truce agreement that would make it harder for Israel to resume battle after a weekslong pause, arguing that such a deal would allow Hamas to survive the war intact.
Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition relies on lawmakers who have pledged to bring down his government if he agrees to such a deal, even as many Israelis publicly demand an agreement, saying it is the only way to free dozens of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza.
Hamas, for its part, is determined to remain a force in postwar Gaza and has said it rejects any cease-fire that is temporary and does not ensure Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. The group, along with Egypt, has pushed back strongly against Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel retain a military presence in a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Israel has said is necessary to prevent Hamas from rearming through smuggling.
“Hamas is being asked to accept Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip, entirely or partly,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian research group in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
“Asking them to even consider such a condition is basically asking them to commit suicide, politically speaking,” Mr. Dalalsha added. “This is something Hamas would never, ever agree to.”
All eyes are now on Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar, in case either man has a change of heart, deciding that a deal would serve their interests, and agrees to a deal written with enough ambiguity to allow them to paper over their fundamental differences, at least temporarily.
In Israel, officials and analysts hoped that the averting of a regional war, and the clear decision by Hezbollah to moderate its actions on Sunday, might persuade Mr. Sinwar to soften his position.
Some Israelis believe that Mr. Sinwar has been trying to prolong the Gaza war long enough to ensure that Israel is dragged into a regional war across the Middle East. But Hezbollah’s decision to limit its attacks on Sunday suggested that it was unwilling to risk such an escalation because of the destruction it might bring to Lebanon.
Having understood that a regional war is now less likely, “maybe Sinwar will have greater appetite for a deal,” said Itamar Rabinovich, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington.
But others, like Mr. Dalalsha, believe that Mr. Sinwar may have been strengthened by Hezbollah’s strikes on Sunday, which showed that the Lebanese group is still willing to help its Gazan ally by forcing Israel to fight on two fronts at once.
“Hezbollah could have chosen to wait and not do anything,” Mr. Dalalsha said. Instead, the group gave “the sense to Hamas that they are not alone,” he added.
Either way, most analysts agree that both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar have little interest in giving ground. By agreeing to a temporary truce, Mr. Sinwar would endanger Hamas’s survival as a functioning force in Gaza.
And by allowing Hamas to survive, angering some of his political allies, Mr. Netanyahu would endanger his own political future.
“I don’t really see an end in sight,” said Mr. Dalalsha. Mr. Sinwar has “political interest in ending the war and on the other side you have an Israeli prime minister who has political interest in continuing the war.”
Julian E. Barnes and Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.
Read More: Israel’s conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas grind on, despite an apparent de-escalation.
